Alberta separatism and foreign interference
Or, three wise monkeys?
This column is a revised and updated version of an Op Ed published by The Globe and Mail.
The only sure thing about the Alberta referendum questions on separatism is that foreign interference will occur. It could come principally from Russian-backed entities or U.S. ones, or both.
Russia has lots of experience and capacity developed over the past decade, and would be happy to meddle in a country that is a strong supporter of Ukraine and where political polarization beckons.
The U.S. may choose open influence operations—signals from the Trump administration of a sort already delivered by the Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, that it would welcome Alberta separatism--or its information warriors could well go down the clandestine path of meddling, as has occurred with Greenland. Trump-aligned influencers have already demonstrated they will be happy to get in the game.
Supporters of Alberta separatism, especially the “Alberta Prosperity Project,” have held semi-clandestine meetings with US government officials and profess to have sought both financial and political support. The Alberta separatist movement aligns itself ideologically with Trump administration policies and outlooks. It has, effectively, rolled out a welcome mat for US interference in the coming October referendum.
How has the provincial government led by Danielle Smith responded to the threat of foreign interference? It has adopted a classic ‘three wise monkeys’ approach—’hear no evil, see no evil, speak no evil.’
In the Alberta court case brought by First Nations groups to force a stop to the independence petition process, the government declined to produce any information for Justice Shaina Leonard about measures that it was taking to address the risk. The judge deemed this “concerning.”
The Premier angrily shot back at the court’s decision to halt the petition process, calling it a judicial error. Alberta has now launched its appeal of the ruling. So has the Alberta Prosperity Project, led by cowboy lawyer Jeff Rath.
The only tangible move the Alberta government has taken came when the Premier requested, and subsequently was granted, a top-secret clearance to receive classified briefings from CSIS. This may prove to be of limited valkue given the legal restrictions on CSIS investigations—which limit the Service to influence activities that are clandestine, deceptive or pose threats to persons-- and its embedded sensitivity to reporting on any U.S. activities.
Ms. Smith’s government displays no knowledge of the broader federal security architecture built since 2019 to deal with foreign interference in elections, especially the role of the Security and Intelligence Threats to Elections Task Force (SITE TF). The SITE TF pulls together all the evidence that might be available across government security agencies about foreign interference in federal elections. Alberta has made no call on its capabilities.
There is no indication that the Alberta government truly understands the threat posed by online mis-and disinformation—a threat deemed by Justice Hogue in her final report as head of the Foreign Interference Inquiry as “existential.” The province possesses no capacity remotely similar to that developed by Global Affairs’ “Rapid Response Mechanism” to monitor foreign disinformation campaigns. The ease with which these may be mounted has been radically improved by the leak of the Alberta voters’ registration database to another pro-separatist movement, the Centurion Project.
Efforts to monitor separatist campaign financing have already run into obstacles, with the refusal of the Alberta Prosperity Project to open its books to Elections Alberta. Foreign financing and support was a concerning element of the Freedom Convoy protests. Some of the key figures in the truckers’ protests, such as convoy lawyer Keith Wilson, have turned up as strong supporters of the Alberta separatist movement.
Hear no evil, see no evil. Worse is that the Alberta government seems wholly unprepared (and unwilling) to speak any evil when it comes to the separatist movement and foreign interference. It has no mechanism that would allow it to issue non-partisan warnings to the Alberta public during the lead up to the vote, and no commitment to any kind of public after-action report following the ‘referendum on a referendum.’ This determination to speak no evil is clearly aligned with a desire not to further rile elements of the Premier’s UCP that support separatism. She is already in trouble with this vocal fringe.
The only concession that the Smith government has made is a statement from the Premier’s press secretary, Sam Blackett, that the Public Safety and Emergency Services Minister, Mike Ellis, and the Technology and Innovation Minister, Nate Glubish, have been tasked with monitoring influence campaigns and would share any concerns “with authorities.” This is a closed loop and a far cry from a commitment to issue public statements about what the Alberta government might uncover.
The provincial NDP opposition leader, Naheed Nenshi, has tried to step into the breach by requesting that CSIS provide public updates on potential foreign interference attempts. But CSIS does not report to provincial authorities and certainly not to a provincial opposition party. Any request to CSIS would have to come directly from the Smith government and would have to be approved by the feds. Nenshi has also attacked the Smith government for failing to take steps to defend the referendum process from foreign interference.
Smith’s press secretary has shot back, calling this “fear-mongering.”
Turning reasonable demands for public updates about foreign interference into partisan political warfare will get the province and its voters precisely nowhere.
One major lesson from the Foreign Interference Inquiry, which reported in January 2025 and should still be fresh, is that, at the end of the day, it doesn’t really matter whether foreign interference has any tangible impact on electoral outcomes. What matters is the confusion, and loss of confidence in the integrity of democratic processes that it causes.
Witness the Brexit referendum, fast-becoming a reference point for developments in Alberta. A decade later, UK citizens are still trying to grapple with the consequences and re-thinking the outcome. No certainty is possible about whether foreign interference swayed what was a very close vote. The reason – the British government steadfastly refused to use its intelligence capabilities to conduct any kind of post-mortem assessment.
Public confusion, loss of confidence in governance and democratic practices. This is precisely the territory into which the three ‘wise’ monkeys of the Alberta government are headed.
(Wesley Wark was co-author of a submission to the Foreign Interference Inquiry on behalf of the Centre for International Governance Innovation. He gave affidavit evidence on foreign interference for the Alberta Court of King’s Bench in its recent ruling.)
The democratic ousting of Viktor Oban in Hungary aside, recent events in Ireland, the covert interference in Slovenia’s recent elections that led to the ousting of the progressive government of Pres. Musar, and countless other smaller, but no less telling false-flag casualty events, attacks and key-figure assassinations, global stage stakes are quite clearly much higher than anyone outside the intelligence community is aware of.
In this, Danielle Smith is way out of her league, and it is encouraging to me that she is working with CSIS on this. There are clear indications that the feds are taking these threats very seriously. We all should.
Thanks for this clear picture. We all need to be alert, in or out of Alberta.