Ballistic Terror

Or, time for THE SPEECH

It’s called “ballistic terror.” Putin’s regime is using his ballistic missile arsenal to target Ukraine’s people and its capitol, Kyiv, in a desperate effort to undermine morale and allow his military forces on the ground to make the kinds of gains they are otherwise unable to achieve. No matter that deliberate attacks on such civilian targets as high-rise apartments buildings are a war crime. This has been in the Russian playbook since the beginning of the war, terrifyingly so when it came to the barbaric siege of Mariupol.

In the most recent Russian assault on Kyiv, all of its 23 ballistic missiles, far more difficult to defend against than drones, and far more deadly, got through depleted Ukrainian air defences. Ukraine is desperately short of US-made Patriot missiles. A Ukrainian adviser to the Defence Minister is quoted as saying “We simply don’ have the missiles. We have nothing to use against ballistic missiles.” ^[i]

President Zelensky has urged that the U.S. allow it to manufacture under license its own Patriots, something it is currently prohibited by U.S. export controls from doing. He has urged Ukraine’s allies to open their stockpiles. He will make that appeal in person during the NATO leaders’ summit in Ankara which begins today (July 7). ^[ii]

How can Canada respond, and with urgency? We don’t have stockpiles of Patriot missiles to send to Ukraine. In fact, our cupboard is completely bare of surface-to-air missiles. We have tried in the past to help Ukraine by buying a similar system, known as the NASAMS (National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems) from the US and have it sent directly to Ukraine. The NASAMS is a joint manufacturing venture between a Norwegian and a US company. Like the Patriot, it is an integrated system that involves a radar unit, electro-optical and infrared sensors (good for detecting missile plumes) and a set of missile canisters. The actual missile component is built by the US Raytheon company.^[iii]

Recall the saga of the Canadian purchase of the NASAMS for Ukraine. It was announced by PM Justin Trudeau in November 2022. Then mired in delay. Defence Minister Bill Blair complained publicly about the hold-up in March 2024, pointing a finger at the US. He said, “we promised this [Ukraine] needs it. We want it delivered as quickly as possible.” ^[iv] It finally was delivered in November 2024, two years after the order was placed. ^[v] But like the Patriots, its effectiveness relies on a steady supply of interceptor missiles—the American kit. Without it, the system can detect, but has nothing to fire.

Canada, of course, has been a steadfast and leading supporter of Ukraine in its fight for survival. We have sanctioned Russia, sent what arms we could, supplied air-to-air missile parts from our stockpiles, entered into a joint drone production agreement with Ukraine for drones, provided financial aid, and joined in the NATO PURL process (Priority Ukraine Requirements List) for purchasing weapons for Ukraine from US sources after the Trump administration declined to pay for them and supply them themselves.

Sometimes when hard military power is missing, the only thing to do is rely on the power of words—of appeals. To allies, to peoples. Winston Churchill famously did this in his speech announcing the withdrawal of British forces from France in 1940 and their evacuation (minus all weapons) from the beaches of Dunkirk. In June 1940, Britain had, effectively, no army to defend itself against a feared German invasion. And so Churchill spoke in the House of Commons to rally, not just the British people, not just the Commonwealth, but also the United States, then a neutral. Churchill did not mince words. He called the defeat on the continent Britain’s greatest military disaster, suffered at the hands of an “odious” Nazi state. He promised that Britain would fight on. Who does not know the famous pledge to “fight on the beaches.”

You might not know the finale to the speech:

“and even if, which I do not for a moment believe, this Island or a large part of it were subjugated and starving, then our Empire beyond the seas, armed and guarded by the British Fleet, would carry on the struggle, until, in God’s good time, the New World, with all its power and might, steps forth to the rescue and the liberation of the old.” ^[vi]

Is there a Churchill in the crowd of NATO leaders at Ankara? Would such an appeal fall on deaf Trump ears? Is rummaging through the history of famous wartime speeches a pure exercise in nostalgia?

The attempt has to be made. I nominate Carney. The man has a way with ground-breaking speeches (think Davos) aimed at the world, aimed at peoples, aimed at governments. His audience would be Trump, but beyond him, the American people. What would the appeal be? Carney has tried a bit of it before, talking of being on “the right side of history” by supporting Ukraine. That might not win over Trump, whose coterie cares nothing about Ukraine. But what President, in his last term in office, doesn’t want to be in that legacy zone? Besides, the “right side of history” might land with a broader American population in the 250^th anniversary year of American independence.

It would be an appeal to US military power, to US innovation, US industrial might. That would surely appeal to the Trumpists.

It would be an appeal to Trump’s ego—only he can stop the bloodshed. It would be an appeal to Trump’s friendly relations with Putin. Only he can convince Vladi of the need to stop. That might really have an effect (feel free, Mark, on this one occasion, to go all out in stoking Trump’s limitless self-regard).

There might even be a whisper in the air—you desperately need a win after Iran, Mr. President.

Send the Patriots, put real pressure on your pal in the Kremlin, stop the bloodshed.

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^[i] Kyiv Independent, “For second time in 4 days, Russia targets Kyiv with mass missile attack, killing at least 26,” July 6, 2026, https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attack-july-6/

^[ii] ibid

^[iii] NASAMS Air Defence system, https://www.kongsberg.com/what-we-do/defence-and-security/integrated-air-and-missile-defence/nasams-air-defence-system/

^[iv] Edmonton Journal, “Canada’s $406 million missile system for Ukraine hung up in U.S. red tape: Blair,” March 10, 2024, https://edmontonjournal.com/news/national/canadas-406-million-missile-system-for-ukraine-hung-up-in-u-s-red-tape-blair

^[v] DND, News release, “Canada’s donation of new air defence system arrives in Ukraine.” November 22, 2024, https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/news/2024/11/canadas-donation-of-new-air-defence-system-arrives-in-ukraine.html

^[vi] International Churchill Society, transcript of Winston Churchill’s address to the House of Commons, June 4, 1940, https://winstonchurchill.org/resources/speeches/1940-the-finest-hour/we-shall-fight-on-the-beaches/