Canada’s new 10-year security deal with Ukraine

Or, good on soft power, missing on hard power

Dear Readers:

An earlier version of this piece was published by the Toronto Star under the title, “Canada is Doing its Part to help Ukraine,” {online, February 29, 2024]

Canada recently signed an unprecedented security agreement with Ukraine, an instrument that harkens back to the joining up with the United States in defence cooperation in 1940, and the founding of NATO in 1949. The new security deal with Ukraine is a sign of a changing geopolitical time.

The Canadian-Ukraine Strategic Security Partnership was inked in Kyiv on Saturday, February 24, by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who was making his third visit to the country since the war broke out.

The date—marking the second anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine-- was symbolic of Ukraine’s astonishing ability to resist the Russian onslaught. The Partnership looks to the future.

The Canadian security agreement promises significant financial support for Ukraine in 2024—to the tune of 3.02 billion dollars; a ten-year commitment to support Ukraine’s security and independence; and general endorsement of Ukraine’s bid for NATO membership. The agreement also endorses Ukraine’s ten-point peace plan (including full restoration of Ukrainian sovereign territory; punishment of war crimes; and post-war reparations from Russia). It promises to put Canada’s diplomatic shoulder to the wheel to gain  “wide international participation” in the peace plan.

There is a mix of soft and hard-power promises in the agreement, with an inevitable lean towards soft-power, given the relative decrepitude of the Canadian military and its defence industrial base.

Soft-power support largely comes in the form of financial aid to help the Ukrainian economy, to encourage innovations in Ukrainian governance, especially at the local level, to provide humanitarian aid, and to flow targeted money to key sectors such as Ukrainian agriculture.

What is interesting is the promised support that straddles the line between hard and soft power—assistance for de-mining; support for Ukraine’s cyber security; efforts to partner with Ukraine to deal with pervasive Russian disinformation; enhanced intelligence sharing;  and even a $30 million tranche to the Canadian Security Intelligence Service to work with its Ukrainian counterparts, a sum which suggests that CSIS will have an active liaison presence at the Canadian embassy in Kyiv to help the Ukrainians counter Russian espionage efforts.  Canada will also contribute nuclear detection capabilities to Ukraine, an ever-present concern especially with the presence of major Ukrainian power plants in war zones, some under occupation by Russian forces.

Immediate hard-power aid to Ukraine is the weak part of the package. There is a commitment to sustained training under Operation Unifier of the Ukrainian armed forces, and to ready the Ukrainian air force to fly promised F-16 fighter jets. There is also the provision of 800 advanced, civilian drones from a Canadian supplier, equipped with thermal-optical imagery capacity to detect heat signatures (but not with warheads). The agreement holds nothing but vague language on any future defence industrial policy or mobilization of broader civil industry capacity to support Ukraine with things like artillery shells, armoured vehicles, or drones.

The Canadian new deal with Ukraine delivers on a G-7 commitment made in July 2023. Others have signed their own agreements, including the U.K., France, Germany and Italy. There are still two important G-7 hold-outs--Japan, and, of course, the United States. Japan faces a traditional hesitancy in exporting lethal weapons, but has been clear that it sees any Russian triumph against Ukraine as a portent for aggression by China in its own geo-political neighbourhood. Like every other G-7 country, Japan worries about political paralysis and a turn to isolationism by the American superpower.

The U.S.’s security assistance declaration has been held up by Congressional wrangling over a promised 60-billion dollar aid package for Ukraine, something that would dwarf the efforts of all other G-7 countries.

The Canadian government has taken an important stand as a resolute supporter of Ukraine.  Canada has done its bit on the soft-power side, and shown creativity with support that is near hard-power. To help turn the tide of war, a U.S. led hard-power response is critical.