Mighty Iceland
Or, news from the mouse that roared
Iceland is the smallest of the NATO countries. It doesn’t even have an intelligence service or armed forces. Nevertheless, Iceland has taken a step that makes it a pioneer, and risk taker, among its NATO partners.
The Icelandic government has just announced that it is closing its Embassy in Moscow and transferring protection of any consular cases to Norway. It has also required the Russian government to remove its ambassador from Reykjavik and to reduce its embassy staff by 70% (Russia has a surprisingly large contingent in little Iceland).
The Icelandic decision was prompted in part by principle and also by national security concern. The principle was based on a determination that circumstances around information control and security service monitoring by the Russian authoritarian state had made it nearly impossible to operate a diplomatic establishment in the usual way, and that relations with Russia could not continue to be conducted within any norm of ‘peacetime’ engagement.
The Icelandic government was also reacting to the experience in mid-May of cyber attacks against its Parliament (symbolically the oldest Parliament in the democratic world), government ministries, and Supreme Court.
The attack was a DDoS (distributed denial of service) attack on websites, that was claimed by a pro-Russian hacker group with the title, NoName057. This hacker group was created shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and is known to have mounted cyberattacks against a variety of NATO countries. Media reports indicate that these attacks are discussed by NoName057 on its telegram channels. There is no known evidence that NoName057 is directed by the Russian government but its intention to support the Russian government in its war on Ukraine is clear.
https://www.sentinelone.com/labs/noname05716-the-pro-russian-hacktivist-group-targeting-nato/
There were also practical considerations for Iceland, which has a very small diplomatic establishment, with only 18 missions abroad. The combination of the impossibility of operating properly in Moscow, the determination to signal that it would not be passive in the face of pro-Russian cyber attacks, and a desire to use diplomatic resources to maximum effect, all contributed to the Iceland decision. While this was not publicised, it seems that the Icelandic government was uncomfortable with the size of the Russian outpost in Iceland and may well have feared that a good part of that establishment was engaged in various forms of espionage.
Canada, a G7 country, cannot be compared to Iceland. But the calculations at play for Iceland in closing its embassy in Moscow and requiring the withdrawal of the Russian ambassador, deserves consideration by Canada. For Canada, Russian relations cannot be considered business as usual. Our embassy in Moscow faces the same severe constraints in terms of its operations and overt information gathering, and its ability to protect locally engaged staff. Canada, unlike almost all its NATO partners, has not expelled any Russian diplomats from Canada for spying or other foreign interference activities. We have not required the down-sizing of the Russian diplomatic staff in Canada. We have not thought whether Canadian diplomatic resources, in a vastly altered geopolitical circumstance, could be better deployed than in Moscow, especially to the NATO front-line states in Europe—the Baltics and Nordics, Poland, Germany, east European countries.
It should require no reminder, but when Canada acted to expel four Russian diplomats in 2018, in retaliation for the Russian assassination attempt against Yuri Skripal (and his daughter) in the UK, it cited foreign interference activities as the reason. This always remains a strong rationale for action and an important tool.
Mighty Iceland. The mouse that roared.
Canada, not so much?
Update: The Canadian Prime Minister has just announced that he will be traveling to Iceland to meet with the Nordic Prime Ministers, June 25-26. Maybe a word in his ear?
If diplomats are going to be expelled then start with China.