Sparing the Intelligence Community?

Or, watching the cuts, not smart

In the United States, disquiet is already being expressed about cuts imposed on staffing in parts of the US intelligence community, including one of its smallest, but most vital, analytical components, the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence Analysis and Research (INR). One former head of INR, Ellen McCarthy, who led the 300-strong Bureau from 2019 to 2021, has urged that it be spared entirely, to protect its mission of providing intelligence to support US global diplomacy. ^[1] US media outlets report plans to make wide-swath personnel cuts, numbering in the several thousands, at the CIA, the National Security Agency (the US signals intelligence agency), and elements responsible for satellite intelligence collection and analysis. ^[2] In other words, the core of the US intelligence community. A leaked memo from the Director of the CIA offers this rationale: “For decades the CIA has known nothing but growth, but years of growing budgets and resources are behind us. Moving forward you will be part of a smaller, more elite and efficient workforce.” ^[3]

But the official rationale does not tell the full story, of course. Some senior US intelligence officials have been forced out; others are choosing not to move forward, leaving government service because of a toxic and politicised workplace environment in which senior Trump administration appointees, such as the ultra-egregious Tulsi Gabbard, the Director of National Intelligence, pursue a revenge attack on a mythical “deep state.”

As the former Director of INR stated, diminishment to capabilities through such cuts “won’t show up overnight, but when they do, the costs will be far greater than what was saved.” ^[4]

In Canada, we have been spared the Trumpian revenge motifs, the likes of Gabbard, and the slasher crew at DOGE (the so-called Department of Government Efficiency), but not, of course, steep cuts to government spending.

The Liberal government has instituted a budget cut program over three years to reduce costs by 15%, starting with a spending reduction in fiscal year 2025-2026 of 7.5% and progressing to the full 15% by 2027-2028. One analysis suggests that government departments will need to slash $6.35 billion from their personnel expenses by 2028-2029. ^[5] Over the summer, departments have been scrambling to come up with plans to reach these reduction targets, which they must submit by August 28.

Some parts of the government have been spared from the blood-letting. These include DND, the RCMP and CBSA, who only have to come up with 2% cuts over the next three years, which presumably can be accomplished through minor operating adjustments and staff attrition.

No official rationale has been offered as to why these three have been protected, but it is easy enough to guess. Major spending promises have been made to speed Canadian defence spending to 2% of GDP by the end of this fiscal year, and to reach the new NATO target of 5%. The RCMP has long been over-stretched, especially in performing its national security law enforcement functions. CBSA protects the border and cuts would undercut the Government’s efforts to show increased border security capacity.

Ring-fencing DND will protect the budgets of two key intelligence agencies, the Communications Security Establishment, responsible for signals intelligence and cyber security, and the Canadian Forces Intelligence Command, which provides intelligence collection, analysis and reporting to support the Canadian armed forces. Overall, the DND intelligence effort is actually the largest component of the Canadian intelligence community.

But another major intelligence collector, CSIS, enjoys no such protection. Nor do many of the other elements of the Canadian intelligence community. Of the eight, so-called core members of the community, only three are protected (DND, RCMP, CBSA). In addition to CSIS, and the CSIS-affiliated and renamed Integrated Threat Assessment Centre (ITAC), the Global Affairs intelligence bureau is exposed, as are the key analytic and reporting elements at the Privy Council Office, including the staff that supports the National Security and Intelligence Adviser and the work of the Security and Intelligence Secretariat. ^[6]

To borrow from the INR former director, “in a world increasingly defined by uncertainty and great power rivalry,” the last thing that [substitute Canada] should be doing is “cutting indispensable assets.” That is, people, intelligence experts.

The health of the Canadian intelligence community as a whole needs to be considered. Sectoral cuts and limited ring-fencing, doesn’t achieve that. Especially concerning is the prospect that offices responsible for intelligence analysis and forecasting will be considered low-hanging fruit. There might even be enthusiasm for the profoundly silly idea that AI can do a good part of the work.

A special approach is needed here. Ring-fence the lot over the next three years. Spend a bit of budget dust, and intellectual capital, on assessing the capacity of the Canadian intelligence community, a review that has never been conducted in the entirely of its eighty-year, post-World War Two, history. Then see what you need and what can be cut.

Wouldn’t that be smart?

---

^[1] Ellen McCarthy, “It’s not too late to spare this crucial intelligence agency,” Washington Post, July 22, 2025, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/07/22/bureau-intelligence-research-state-department-staff-cuts/

^[2] Warren P. Strobel, “Trump administration plans major downsizing at U.S. spy agencies,” Washington Post, May 2, 2025, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/05/02/cia-layoffs-trump-administration/ ; CBS News, “Sources describe disarray at State Department after Trump administration layoffs,” July 16, 2025, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/sources-describe-disarray-at-state-department-after-trump-administrations-layoffs/

^[3] Warren P. Strobel, “Trump administration plans major downsizing at U.S. spy agencies,” Washington Post, May 2, 2025, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/05/02/cia-layoffs-trump-administration/

^[4] Ellen McCarthy, “It’s not too late to spare this crucial intelligence agency,” Washington Post, July 22, 2025, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/07/22/bureau-intelligence-research-state-department-staff-cuts/

^[5] David Macdonald, Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, “A Stiff Price to Pay: Predicting federal job losses due to Carney’s cuts,” July 24, 2025, https://www.policyalternatives.ca/news-research/a-stiff-price-to-pay-predicting-federal-job-losses-due-to-carneys-cuts/#:~:text=The%20Carney%20cuts%20will%20be,2025%20column%20of%20the%20table: Globe and Mail, “Number of federal public service jobs could drop by almost 60,000, report predicts,” July 24, 2025, https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-federal-public-service-jobs-could-drop-by-60000/

^[6] The core elements of the Canadian intelligence community were identified in the 2018 annual report from the National Security and Intelligence Committee of Parliamentarians, see: https://nsicop-cpsnr.ca/reports/rp-2019-04-09/2019-04-09_annual_report_2018_public_en.pdf