The air war balance in Ukraine

Will MIG-29s make a difference?

Poland has just announced that it will supply 4 of its MIG-29 fighter jets (NATO code-name “Fulcrum”) to Ukraine, breaking a NATO taboo and crossing yet another Putin red-line.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/poland-ukraine-fighter-jets-1.6780984

Some NATO partners, such as Germany, may have been taken by surprise but really, they shouldn’t have been. This has been in the works since late last year. The initial supply by Poland will probably open the gates to more—more of the remaining Polish fleet of MIGs and perhaps even all of the remaining Slovakian MIG-29 force.

Slovakia has some 10 MIG-29s left in its air force. They have been removed from active service duties as the Slovak air force awaits delivery of modern F-16s. Bulgaria also has a handful of MIG 29s but reports indicate they are not serviceable and in any case internal politics in that country would preclude their transfer to Ukraine.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/slovak-defence-minister-says-time-decide-sending-mig-29-jets-ukraine-2023-03-09/

The state of the Bulgarian fleet is a reminder that the MIG-29 is an old fighter jet (dating from the early 1980s), even older than the CF-18 that the RCAF flies (and that’s saying something). But like the CF-18s, the ones in the hands of NATO countries in Eastern Europe have been upgraded and retain a combat capability, even if servicing and spare parts may prove difficult.

https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/bulgaria-to-receive-mig-29-engines-from-poland

Will an injection of NATO-country MIG-29s make a difference in the air war over Ukraine? The MIG-29, in theory, would be no match in combat for the latest Russian fighters, including the SU-27s used in the downing of the US drone over the Black Sea. The SU-27 is much faster, more agile, has longer range and is capable of carrying more armaments. But in the hands of determined Ukrainian pilots it might just hold its own in air-to-air combat. The MIG-29 is reputed to be the better plane at higher altitudes.

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/air-space-magazine/fighter-jet-fights-both-sides-180975834/

Note to Russian air force pilots—keep looking up.

Where the MIGs might have some effect in the air war would be adding an element of threat to unescorted Russian bombers entering Ukrainian air space to pound civilian infrastructure. But the biggest impact would be to bolster Ukrainian air force ground attack capabilities in support of an expected Ukrainian counter-offensive in the weeks or months to come.

For a hard-pressed Ukrainian air force that has no doubt suffered serious losses, anything that NATO supplies is welcome, even if they are older hand-me-down jets. What the Ukrainians have made clear they want is more advanced Western fighters. That will be another red line for the West, more self-imposed than anything. When and if that red line will be crossed is anyone’s guess.

https://www.airandspaceforces.com/us-uk-officials-upgraded-airpower-for-ukraine-post-war/

In the meantime, the supply of MIG 29s won’t change the air war balance, it will just give the Ukrainians more of a fighting chance. Erasing Putin red-lines is also a plus.

If the Polish decision points down the road to a future supply of modern Western jet fighters, that would be a real game changer.

One small irony to close this column. The Polish MIG 29s that will go to Ukraine came from where? You might reasonably guess the Soviet Union, but you would be wrong, at least partially. They were passed on to the Polish air force by the Germans after reunification. They are ex-GDR (East German) fighters. The price to Poland was 1 euro per plane. What goes around comes around.

https://www.dw.com/en/german-polish-mig-29-transfer-complete/a-1287949

And a PS. Some enterprising type with enough cash could even buy some MIG-29s in Utah and ship them over to Ukraine. I am not kidding.

https://www.globalplanesearch.com/listing/aircraft-for-sale/MiG-29UB/278957