What 2023 will bring

Guesstimates for the New Year

I am taking a break from anything substantive until January. But here is a short list of things to be expected on the national security and intelligence landscape in 2023

1. Surprises (but please no Freedom Convoy 2.0)

2. The report of the Public Order Emergency Commission—mark late February 2023 in your calendar. Any surprises?

3. the delayed start to the Parliamentary review of the legislation that created the National Security and Intelligence Committee of Parliamentarians.

4. the promised update to the Defence strategy from 2017, “Strong, Secure, Engaged,” (possibly entitled, “Not Yet Very Strong, Still Insecure, Not very Engaged.”)

5. A new cyber security strategy, also promised

6. A new critical infrastructure strategy, in the works.

7. Consultation on establishing a “Foreign Agents Registry,” (or how to avoid political theatre)

8. Maybe an economic security strategy, with greater emphasis on the protection of Canadian intelligence property, Canadian research, and stronger measures for national security review of foreign investment under the Investment Canada Act

9. Maybe a start to the modernization of the CSIS Act (depending on #2 and willingness of the Government to spend political capital)

10. Bad stuff—principally involving the cyber realm and climate change security impacts

11. On-going tensions with China

12. Expulsion of Russian intelligence operatives from Canada (ha, place your best)

13. Greater attention to Ukraine war crimes efforts by Canada (but the Canadian war crimes program is in pretty desperate straits)

I should end on 13.

but

14. No resolution to the war in Ukraine

Best wishes to all readers of this Newsletter for the New Year. Feel free to add any comments about expected things that I should have expected.